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北京师范大学学报(社会科学版) ›› 2020, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (6): 128-142.

• 经济管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

单向促进还是双向加成——中国制造业与服务业就业互动关系研究

陈龙, 张力   

  1. 北京交通大学 经济管理学院,北京 100044
  • 收稿日期:2020-07-03 出版日期:2020-11-25 发布日期:2020-12-14
  • 通讯作者: 陈龙,E-mail:14113095@bjtu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重大项目“促进科技与经济深度融合的体制机制研究”之子课题“促进科技与经济深度融合的人才管理体制机制研究”(16ZDA011),国家自然科学基金青年项目“健康与退休的联合最优决策模型及其政策意义”(71704008)

Unidirectional or Bidirectional Employment Multipliers:Research on the interaction in employment between manufacturing industry and service industry in China

CHEN Long, ZHANG Li   

  1. School of Economics and Management,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China
  • Received:2020-07-03 Online:2020-11-25 Published:2020-12-14

摘要: 随着互联网和信息技术的飞速发展,制造业与服务业相互作用、互动融合已经成为现代产业发展的主流趋势,两者之间就业互动关系对经济新常态下稳步扩大就业具有重要影响。通过构建包括制造业就业方程和服务业就业方程的联立方程模型,并基于1997—2016年中国大陆30个省(市、自治区)的面板数据,综合考察制造业与服务业就业互动关系以及经济系统外生变量对其的影响效应,研究表明:(1)总体上,制造业与服务业就业互动以制造业对服务业就业的单向促进作用为主,服务业对低端制造业存在的不显著挤出效应很可能是造成服务业无法带动制造业总体就业的主要原因。(2)细分门类上,由于低端制造业对用工成本变动更为敏感,导致就业互动关系仅表现为其对生活性和生产性服务业就业的单向促进作用,而中高端或高新技术制造业与不同类型服务业就业之间均存在显著的双向加成作用。(3)市场规模、对外开放度的扩大和制造业集聚水平的提升均有利于增加制造业就业,信息化水平和服务业集聚水平的提升则促进服务业就业;相反,资本有机构成、地方保护主义的提高会分别降低两者就业。(4)制造业与服务业就业互动关系在空间区域上存在互补性。有鉴于此,应当推动制造业与服务业深度融合,加强政策引导和监督,统筹规划,通过产业转移充分利用区域互补性实现全面扩大就业。

关键词: 就业互动关系, 制造业就业, 服务业就业, 联立方程模型

Abstract: With the rapid development of Internet and information technology,the main trend of modern industrial development is the integration of manufacturing and service industries,and the interaction between them in employment is crucial to enlarge the scale of employment in the New Normal.Based on the Chinese provincial-level panel dataset(except Tibet) during the period 1997-2016,this paper constructs a simultaneous equations model including both manufacturing employment equation and service employment equation,and examines the interaction of employment between them as well as influential effects that exogenous variables of economic system have.The empirical analysis indicates:Firstly,on the whole the multiplier effect of manufacturing employment on local service employment dominates the interaction of employment between manufacturing industry and service industry,while various service sectors have insignificant squeeze-out effects of employment on low-end manufacturing industry,which may be the main cause for service industry that fails to promote manufacturing employment.Secondly,low-end manufacturing industry has unidirectional multiplier effect of employment on both consumer services and producer services since low-end manufacturing industry is more sensitive to the variation of labor cost,but there exists significant bidirectional multiplier effect of employment between various service sectors and mid-high or high-tech manufacturing industry.Thirdly,enlarging market scale,promoting the rate of economic opening and increasing the manufacturing industry concentration are beneficial to increase manufacturing employment,while promoting informatization as well as service clusters contributes to improve performance in service employment.On the contrary,the increase of organic composition of capital and the prevalence of local protectionism may reduce the employment opportunities.Finally,complementary relations in the interaction of employment between manufacturing industry and service industry exist in different regions.Therefore,it's crucial to promote the deeply essential amalgamation of manufacturing and service industries,strengthen policy guidance and oversight and make full use of regional comparative advantages in the interaction of employment to maximize employment opportunities by regional industry transfer.

Key words: interaction of employment, manufacturing employment, service employment, simultaneous equations mode

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