人口老龄化与环境污染:生产效应还是生活效应？

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 近年来,人口老龄化和环境污染成为全球性的两大热议话题,如何正确理解人口老龄化、经济增长与环境污染之间的逻辑关系成为老龄化背景下环境经济政策选择的关键。以1992—2010年全球106个国家的跨国面板数据为样本,从理论和实证两个角度分析老龄化与环境污染的关系,以及老龄化对环境污染的影响路径。研究发现:(1)从理论模型看,老龄化对环境污染的影响通过生产效应和生活效应两个路径实现,前者是指人口老龄化通过影响当期消费而减少污染,后者是指人口老龄化通过影响下期投资而增加污染。(2)从实证检验看,人口老龄化对环境污染的影响主要通过生活效应实现,生产效应的影响并不显著。从分组回归看,在低收入国家,人口老龄化对环境污染的影响主要通过生产效应实现,在中等收入国家和高收入国家,人口老龄化对环境污染的影响则主要通过生活效应实现。上述结论意味着:以中国为代表的发展中国家,在从低收入迈向高收入的进程中,即将来到老龄化与环境污染U型关系的拐点,即当人口老龄化水平高于13.3%时,人口老龄化会加重环境污染。这样,如果不能实现经济发展新旧动能的接续转换,不能实现经济结构的转型升级,就有可能面临中等收入陷阱、人口老龄化和环境污染的三重问题叠加,因此,需要加快推动高质量发展和绿色发展,争取更大的时间窗口,推迟人口老龄化与环境污染U型关系拐点的到来。

关键词: 老龄化, 环境污染, OLG模型, 中介效应模型

Abstract: In recent years, aging population and environmental pollution have become crucial problems globally. The logical relationship among aging, economic growth and pollution is critical for formulating environmental economic policy. Based on the panel data of 106 countries from 1992 to 2010, the relationship between aging and pollution as well as the influence path are examined from the theoretical and empirical perspectives. The results of the influence of aging on pollution are listed as follows. Theoretically, the impact is realized through production effect and living effect. The former refers to the pollutant reduction by present consumption and the latter means the pollutant increasing by next period investment. Empirically, the impact of aging on pollution is significant in the living effect, but insignificant in production effect. From group regression data of the impact on pollution by aging, the production effect is significant in low-income countries, but living effect is significant in middle-income and high-income countries. It means that developing countries during the process from low to high income such as China are about to meet the turning point of U relationship between aging and pollution. When the aging population is above 13.3%, it can effectively increase pollution. Thus, if we cannot realize the continuous transformation from the old to new driving force, nor the transformation and upgrading of the economic structure, we will confront with the problems of middle income trap, pollution and aging all together. We should promote the green development with high quality, and strive for a larger time span to postpone the turning point of U relationship.

Key words: aging population, environmental pollution, OLG model, mediating effect model

中图分类号:

F205

杜雯翠,张平淡. 人口老龄化与环境污染:生产效应还是生活效应？[J]. 北京师范大学学报(社会科学版), 2019, 0(3): 112-123.

DU Wencui, ZHANG Pingdan. Aging and Pollution: Production Effect or Living Effect?[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University(Social Sciences), 2019, 0(3): 112-123.

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