关键词: 制造业, 本地劳动力市场效应, 就业乘数, 发展阶段转变

Abstract: The employment multiplier effect of manufacturing industry is a fundamental issue in the field of economics, and the change of employment multipliers is an important reflection of the transformation of population and economic development stages.We use county-level data from the Chinese Population Census to estimate the long-term multiplier effect of manufacturing on local service sector employment from 2000 to 2020.We reveal an overall employment multiplier of 0.59 during this period, with clear phase-specific characteristics and significant turning points.Between 2000 and 2010, the multiplier reached 0.62, but from 2010 to 2020, no significant employment multiplier effect was observed.In the first decade, the multiplier was notably stronger for employment in consumer-oriented services, while it was weaker for producer-oriented and public services.In the second decade, manufacturing even showed a crowding-out effect on employment in consumer services.The turning point of the employment multiplier effect reflects the profound changes in the relationship between the manufacturing industry and the service industry, which is synchronized with the changes in Chinese population, labor markets and economic development stages.Continuously observing the employment multiplier effect is helpful to understand the rapid transformation of China's demographic and economic structures and development stages, and further grasp the regional and industrial development strategies, as well as macroeconomic policies under the new normal of population and economy.

Key words: manufacturing industry, the local labor market effect, employment multipliers, development stage transformation